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2023 Joshua Schachter predictions

www.curiousdk.com

2023 Joshua Schachter predictions

AI, identity and trust

DK
Jan 16, 2023
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2023 Joshua Schachter predictions

www.curiousdk.com

AI

  • haven’t seen innovation in the product side modulo AI

  • giant growth in tech has been business vs. tech innovation

  • image generation visceral, but not that important

  • Video and text are more information dense - LLMs enormously more impactful

  • Copyright, credit, ownership turbulence

  • Photos are copyright or not, but music has more complicated ideas of ownership

  • Legislation and non-practitioner understanding will lag 30 years

  • Language models - complicates the marketplace of information

  • Tough to eval quality of something

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Identity & Trust

  • Everything will become untrustworthy

  • Huge bunch of people will not trust anything, huge bunch of people will trust everything

  • When transactions can’t be trusted, p2p as a viable architecture disappears

  • No such thing as core verifiable identity

  • PKI as an identity thing - discussed for years - nobody wanted that, difficulty of use trumps security

  • Existing social networks unlikely to innovate there, play against their own interests

  • LLMs could look at things someone writes and help evaluate identity

  • Pace of trust erosion picking up

  • See systems designed around high trust

  • Communication attachable to sueable person that can be punished

  • Very low cost to spam

  • Bring up the transaction costs to improve the behavior

  • Reduce barrier to entry to make them big, increase tx cost to make them good - never did that second step

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2023 Joshua Schachter predictions

www.curiousdk.com
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